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BNP Paribas looks forward to 2025: The Federal Reserve is expected to stay put for the whole year, and the US yield will rise. The 2025 outlook report released by BNP Paribas on Thursday shows that the yield of US Treasury bonds is expected to rise, and under the strong dollar, it will reach parity against the euro. The bank predicts that with the entry into force of the tariff measures proposed by the incoming Trump administration, the US inflation rate will start to pick up from the middle of next year, prompting the Fed to remain inactive throughout 2025. Calvin Tse, the bank's head of macro strategy for the Americas, said that customers are advised to continue to allocate low US Treasury bonds next year, because they expect that inflation will accelerate from mid-2025 after the soft landing of the economy, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds will be 4.65% at the end of the year. Tse also said that inflation is expected to be higher and the Fed is more hawkish next year.Hokkaido, Japan will levy accommodation tax from 2026, and it is estimated that the annual tax revenue will reach 4.5 billion yen. On December 12, the plenary session of Hokkaido Parliament of Japan passed a regulation to levy accommodation tax on tourists staying in hotels and hotels in Daodao, which is expected to be implemented from April 2026. The accommodation fee per person per night is 500 yen if it is above 50,000 yen (about 2,380 yuan), 200 yen if it is between 20,000 and 50,000 yen, and 100 yen if it is below 20,000 yen. It is estimated that the annual tax revenue will reach about 4.5 billion yen, which will be used for transportation infrastructure construction and "excessive tourism" (tourism pollution) countermeasures.The U.S. Senate has obtained enough votes to confirm Biden's nominee, Marzano, as a member of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

The President of Belarus approved the national defense plan for 2026-2030. According to the website of the President of Belarus on the 12th, President Lukashenko approved the national defense plan for 2026-2030 at the meeting of the Belarusian Security Council that day. Lukashenko pointed out at the meeting that in recent years, the military and political situation around Belarus has deteriorated, individual countries have escalated the situation around Belarus, and European countries' destructive remarks against Belarus have also increased. He stressed that the Belarusian army poses no threat to any country, is a tool to prevent war, and will repel the enemy when the country is invaded.Countering the price limit of Western countries, Putin extended the oil supply ban. On the 13th, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree, announcing the extension of the counter-measures to set price ceilings for Russian oil and oil products until June 30, 2025. Putin signed a presidential decree on December 27, 2022, demanding that the supply of Russian petroleum and petroleum products to foreign legal persons and individuals who directly or indirectly use the price ceiling mechanism in their contracts be prohibited. This presidential decree came into effect on February 1, 2023, and its validity period was extended several times. In early December, 2022, EU member states reached an agreement on setting a price ceiling of $60 per barrel for Russian seaborne oil exports. The Group of Seven and Australia announced that they would implement the same price limit policy as the EU. (Xinhua News Agency)Ukraine National Natural Gas Transportation Company: On December 14th, the Russian natural gas passing through Sujia border crossing point was 42.39 million cubic meters, and on December 13th, it was 42.33 million cubic meters.

Israel pressured the Palestinian National Authority to search for militants. The Palestinian National Authority admitted on the 12th that Palestinian security forces killed a 19-year-old civilian man during an operation in the West Bank city of Jenin earlier this week. Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) accused the Palestinian National Authority of searching for "resistance fighters" and said that Palestine should avoid internal conflicts. According to Israeli media reports, the Israeli side pressured the Palestinian National Authority to intensify the search, and threatened that if the Palestinian security forces could not do it, the Israeli army would do it. (Xinhua News Agency)Guangzhou Institute: Make solid preparations for the listing of polysilicon futures and options to ensure the smooth launch and steady operation of polysilicon futures and options. With the rapid development of polysilicon industry, the relationship between supply and demand changes rapidly and the price fluctuates greatly due to various factors such as industrial policy, production cycle and technological progress. Due to the lack of objective and continuous price signals, the polysilicon industry has concentrated capacity investment and construction, which is prone to problems such as staged supply and demand mismatch, which is not conducive to the healthy and stable development of the industry. In this context, photovoltaic industry chain enterprises have increasingly strong demands for listed polysilicon futures, pricing with futures tools and managing risks. At the same time, the listed polysilicon futures will help to export the international pricing benchmark, form the "China" price of polysilicon international trade reflecting China's industrial volume, and gradually enhance China's influence in polysilicon international trade pricing. The insiders believe that at present, the industrial silicon varieties in Guangzhou have been running smoothly for nearly two years, and the listing of polysilicon varieties will further improve the variety layout of the crystalline silicon industrial chain for futures services, and provide more accurate futures tools for polysilicon and its downstream photovoltaic industrial chain, which is conducive to further consolidating the global competitive advantage of China's photovoltaic and other industries. The relevant person in charge of the Guangzhou Stock Exchange said that in the next step, under the guidance of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Guangzhou Stock Exchange will make solid preparations for the listing of polysilicon futures and options to ensure the smooth launch and steady operation of polysilicon futures and options. (Guangzhou Institute)Two States in the United States sued Glock, a gun manufacturer, for ignoring the design flaw that "pistols can easily become machine guns". On the 12th, the prosecutors in New Jersey and Minnesota respectively sued Glock, an Austrian weapons manufacturer, accusing the pistol manufactured by them of design defects and being easily converted into illegal machine guns. According to the complaint, Glock knew this situation for a long time, and continued to sell this pistol to the United States and profit from it, which promoted the proliferation of gun violence in the United States. (Xinhua News Agency)